Good morning. And comfortable new yr to everybody.
Or comfortable new yr (medium confidence), as they could put it in a Sage report, utilizing the usual method scientists apply to indicate how assured they’re concerning the judgments they make. (It’s not a behavior that foyer correspondents have adopted, though maybe we must always.)
Medium confidence might be additionally great way of summing up Prof Neil Ferguson’s total temper when he was interviewed on the Right this moment programme this morning. Ferguson, the Imperial School epidemiologist whose modelling is intently adopted by authorities, mentioned he was “cautiously optimistic” that the Omicron pandemic could have plateaued in London (the place instances have been highest) amongst the under-50s. He advised the programme:
I believe I’m cautiously optimistic that an infection charges in London in that key 18-50 age group, which has been driving the Omicron epidemic, could probably have plateaued, it’s too early to say whether or not they’re taking place but.
And that is what he mentioned when he was requested whether or not he thought, total, the impact of Omicron was as dangerous as initially feared, or whether or not it was higher. He replied:
I believe the excellent news right here is it’s definitely much less extreme. We predict, for those who’ve by no means been contaminated earlier than, by no means had a vaccine, [there is] a couple of one third drop within the threat of simply any hospital admission, most likely a two thirds drop within the threat of dying from Omicron. So [it is] considerably much less extreme. And that has helped us undoubtedly. We might be seeing a lot greater an infection case numbers in hospital in any other case.
And vaccines, as we all the time anticipated they might, are holding up in opposition to extreme outcomes nicely.
Nicely that doesn’t imply it’s not going to be, because the prime minister mentioned, a tough few weeks for the NHS.
This may increasingly not sound definitive, however Ferguson sounded noticeably extra assured immediately about Omicron being much less extreme than Delta than he was two weeks ago, when Imperial School revealed early analysis on this subject.
I’ll publish extra from his interview shortly.
Right here is the agenda for the day.
11am: Keir Starmer delivers his speech in Birmingham. As Aubrey Allegretti experiences, Starmer will use it to launch his plan to maintain the momentum of Labour’s poll lead in the runup to the next election.
11.30am: Downing Road holds a foyer briefing.
Right this moment I might be focusing totally on UK Covid developments and on Starmer’s speech. For wider Covid protection, do learn our international reside weblog.
I attempt to monitor the feedback under the road (BTL) however it’s unimaginable to learn all of them. You probably have a direct query, do embrace “Andrew” in it someplace and I’m extra more likely to discover it. I do attempt to reply questions, and if they’re of basic curiosity, I’ll publish the query and reply above the road (ATL), though I can’t promise to do that for everybody.
If you wish to entice my consideration rapidly, it’s most likely higher to make use of Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
Alternatively, you may e-mail me at andrew.sparrow@theguardian.com