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As an epidemiologist and NHS guide, 2022 begins very like 2021 did – I’m once more analysing information on the influence of a brand new Covid variant that threatens to place large strain on our hospitals. And I’m again on the frontline in A&E, serving to my NHS colleagues to take care of that strain.
However we are literally in a significantly better place, and there are good causes to be assured that 2022 might be a significantly better yr than 2021.
Final January was maybe the darkest time of the whole pandemic within the UK, with tens of hundreds being admitted into hospital and hundreds dropping their lives each week.
Now, with nearly all of us properly protected with extremely efficient vaccines, we’ve got a a lot decrease particular person threat of ending up in hospital – or worse – if we catch Covid. The mixture of vaccines and a greater information of find out how to deal with Covid means each hospitalisation and loss of life charges at the moment are a lot decrease, with the infection fatality rate having fallen by over 80%.
And which means, in contrast to final yr, our kids are going again to highschool this week, retail and hospitality companies are open and we’re in a position to meet our mates and households.
Though the NHS is once more below huge strain – particularly due to staff shortages – the early indications are that we’re not dealing with a repeat of final winter with hospital admissions rising more slowly and ICU admissions and deaths mercifully still flat. The information from South Africa and the early information from the UK offers us a sensible hope that this wave might be over faster than earlier ones, and with a lot much less lack of life.
There are causes to be optimistic past simply this wave, as properly. Firstly, the long-promised antiviral medicines have arrived. These new Covid treatments, which have simply began getting used within the UK, have the potential to transform the situation as comparable medicines have executed with HIV and hepatitis C. They’ll scale back the chance of being admitted into hospital by as much as 90%, are efficient towards all variants, could be taken orally and are a lot simpler to distribute than vaccines. Two are already approved however many others are at present present process medical trials and must be out there this yr.
Subsequent, new vaccines are in development that may make it simpler to handle the coronavirus variants that may inevitably emerge over the approaching yr. As with influenza, “multivalent” vaccines – which defend towards an infection from a number of variants – will in all probability develop into out there later this yr.
Different vaccines that focus on elements of the virus in addition to the spike protein – elements that don’t mutate as simply – are additionally on the horizon. There are additionally vaccines being trialled that may be delivered by nasal spray, inhaler, orally and using skin patches – all of which can make distribution simpler and overcome needle phobia.
However the speedy precedence should be to make sure that our present and really efficient vaccines are distributed more equally across the globe. We’ve got made large progress, with 8.5bn doses delivered to this point, however far too many – particularly these at excessive threat and frontline healthcare employees in low-income nations – haven’t even obtained their first dose.
Vaccinating the entire world in 2022 is a sensible prospect however this can require an end to hoarding in high-income nations and a temporary lifting of patents. And that is in our pursuits too – we gained’t have the ability to forestall new variants utterly however we are able to scale back the chance by guaranteeing everybody, all over the place is ready to be vaccinated.
Sadly Covid isn’t going away completely, however we could be optimistic that 2022 would be the year the pandemic ends and it turns into an endemic disease right here and in most nations because of the very excessive ranges of inhabitants immunity we now have – by way of a mix of vaccination and pure an infection. There are nonetheless prone to be seasonal winter peaks, like with flu, and an annual booster jab will in all probability be wanted to take care of new variants and waning immunity.
Like many, I’ve misplaced household, mates and colleagues. I’ve seen numerous sufferers endure from Covid – in addition to from its knock-on results on our well being providers – and from the lockdowns. However the large lack of life and ache ought to quickly be a factor of the previous.
We’re definitely not out of the woods but – instances are at unprecedented ranges and rising (although extra slowly now) and Covid continues to be a severe menace to probably the most weak – so we have to proceed following the general public well being steering to guard them and to assist scale back the strain on the NHS so we are able to proceed treating all our sufferers.
However there’s a lifelike prospect that 2022 would be the yr we are able to start to dwell with the virus – and with out the concern of each Covid and lockdowns that has haunted us for the previous two years.
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