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Though the 2021 season didn’t have the result the Toronto Blue Jays have been hoping for, it had an essential place within the crew’s historical past.
Final 12 months, the Blue Jays gave out franchise-record breaking contracts, noticed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ascend to the extent of stardom that had at all times been predicted for him, and witnessed Robbie Ray deliver dwelling the membership’s fifth Cy Younger award.
Three days into 2022, it is inconceivable to inform how this 12 months will evaluate to its predecessor, however for a comparatively younger franchise just like the Blue Jays, making extra crew historical past is at all times on the desk. A technique that occurs is by pulling down some franchise information, so we’re going to take a look at some document chases to look at within the 12 months forward.
Listed below are some Blue Jays information that might fall in 2022 — so as of most certainly to least possible:
Hit-by-Pitch (Pitchers)
Blue Jays document: 16
File holder: Alek Manoah (2021)/Chris Carpenter (2001)
Why it’d go down: This one is about so simple as it will get. Manoah gave the Blue Jays simply 20 begins final 12 months and tied the document. If he’s nearer to a full season in 2022, it ought to topple.
The large right-hander’s tendency to plonk hitters goes again to his minor-league profession, and for those who depend his Triple-A begins in 2021, he racked up 20 HBP, simply sufficient to prime Carpenter’s whole.
Admittedly, this isn’t an attractive document — and it’d be a bizarre one to look at carefully or cheer for — nevertheless it’s received an important likelihood to be damaged. It’s additionally an intriguing one as a result of Roy Halladay and Roger Clemens safeguard virtually each Blue Jays pitching document underneath the solar, particularly with counting stats. Halladay and Clemens logged way more innings than pitchers at this time do, which makes it virtually inconceivable to take down the strikeout document, as an example. The standard of their performances additionally makes charge statistics all however out-of-reach.
The truth that Manoah can discover an attainable document for beginning pitchers is shocking, however his mixture of fearlessness pitching on the within of the plate — and occasional wildness — is unprecedented for the Blue Jays.
wRC+
Blue Jays document: 180
File holder: Jose Bautista (2011)
Why it’d go down: There’s no higher statistic for measuring all-around offensive efficiency throughout eras than wRC+. Baustista’s 180 is a formidable quantity that’s solely been topped six instances throughout the majors since he set it 11 years in the past. The six gamers who beat 180 (Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, Freddie Freeman, and Mookie Betts) are all in all probability Corridor of Famers, which supplies you a sign of how good you must be to set a document like this.
Fortunately for the Blue Jays, Vladdy is that good. Guerrero Jr.’s wRC+ of 166 in 2021 was the fourth-best mark in crew historical past, and there’s no purpose the 22-year-old can’t proceed to enhance. The slugging first baseman had a 187 wRC+ within the first half of final season (374 plate appearances) so he’s clearly able to sustaining this stage for months at a time. All he must do to place up the most important offensive season in Blue Jays historical past is to remain wholesome, keep away from a protracted stoop like he had in August, and maybe get a bit fortunate.
None of that could be a assure — and Steamer initiatives Guerrero Jr. to roughly match 2021 with a 162 wRC+ — however Vladdy might undoubtedly seize this spectacular document.
Holds
Blue Jays document: 26
File holder: Scott Downs (2010)
Why it’d go down: As soon as once more we’re a pitching document that isn’t glamorous, however it’s attainable — particularly for Tim Mayza. The southpaw already has the twelfth and Thirteenth-highest Blue Jays single-season maintain totals (18 in 2019 and 2021), and he might take a step up in 2022.
Mayza established himself as a dependable high-leverage reliever within the second half of 2021 and he has a couple of elements moving into his favour. He’s constantly used when the Blue Jays are main (35 of his 61 appearances in 2021) and he seems in brief mid-inning outings (his 22 appearances spanning lower than three outs was fifth within the AL) giving him the prospect to seize less-taxing holds and pitch in back-to-back video games extra typically. As a result of the 29-year-old was coming off Tommy John surgical procedure final 12 months, he didn’t get as a lot back-to-back consideration, however the Blue Jays received’t must be as cautious with him in 2022. When Mayza is required, he must be obtainable and Charlie Montoyo likes to go to him.
To interrupt Downs’s document, Mayza wants to stay efficient and retain his function whereas the Blue Jays constantly take leads. The southpaw’s conversion to a sinkerballer makes him comparatively simple to consider in and his function might be even larger in tight spots than it was final 12 months as a result of it took him a few months to ascertain himself in 2021. So far as being bullish on the Blue Jays constructing leads goes, there’s loads of causes for optimism however the offseason work isn’t executed but.
AVG+
Blue Jays document: 136
File holder: John Olerud (1993)
Why it’d go down: Within the present offensive local weather it’s merely a proven fact that no Blue Jays participant goes to prime the .363 batting common Olerud managed in 1993. It’s in all probability not going too far to say that barring main rule adjustments that push again or decrease the mound it could’t be executed in opposition to trendy pitching over an 162-game season.
That stated, AVG+ — a metric that measures batting common in opposition to the league common, is a unique story. No 2022 Blue Jay will be capable to say they broke Olerud’s document, nevertheless it’s attainable they’ll be extra spectacular relative to their friends than Olerud was relative to his. It’s not as romantic a notion as taking down the uncooked batting common mark, however it might be spectacular.
The Blue Jays have a number of candidates to take purpose at Olerud as Guerrero Jr. (127), Bo Bichette (121) and Teoscar Hernandez (120) all posted top-10 marks in crew historical past final season. Guerrero Jr. and Bichette are notably good candidates as Steamer initiatives them for the second and fourth highest batting averages within the majors in 2022.
Assuming the league’s offensive surroundings in 2022 is roughly the identical as 2021, breaking Olerud’s 136 AVG+ would take a median of about .333. Within the final 5 full seasons that quantity has been reached eight instances. That’s powerful, however not out of the query — and the Blue Jays have a few guys taking a chew on the apple. Batting common features a heavy dollop of luck, and if fortune favors Guerrero Jr. or Bichette they’re able to producing gaudy numbers.
Dwelling Runs
Blue Jays document: 54
File holder: Jose Bautista (2010)
Why it’d go down: Since Bautista hit 54 spherical trippers in 2010, just one hitter has bested him (Giancarlo Stanton in 2017) so this qualifies as a longshot. That stated, Guerrero Jr. has simply six dwelling runs in need of this in 2021 and his mixture of unimaginable exit velocity and make contact with capacity offers him the chance to pile up dwelling runs. If his trajectory of slicing down floor balls continues he might additionally give himself extra alternatives to place the ball over the wall as off his bat within the air is lethal.
This isn’t a 50-50 proposition, nevertheless it’s properly throughout the realm of chance contemplating Vladdy’s mixture of 2021 manufacturing and age-related upside. Relating to information, there’s nothing extra enjoyable {that a} dwelling run chase (it definitely beats HBP or holds), so if Guerrero Jr. is ready to construct on the 48 homers he hit final season, it might add an entertaining factor to what the Blue Jays hope is a significant September.
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